Today's Article
The Lancet study
found that as of July
2006, about
655,000 Iraqi
deaths were 'a
consequence of the
war'.
found that as of July
2006, about
655,000 Iraqi
deaths were 'a
consequence of the
war'.
The American Spark
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Just How Many Iraqis Have Died In Bush's Nation-Building?
By Cliff Montgomery - June 4th, 2007
Tens of thousands of Iraqis have died since the Bush Administration invasion of their country in March 2003.
But just how many have lost their lives is a controversial issue, with wildly varying estimates.
Iraq's U.S.-backed government doesn't have a precise figure. Health ministry estimates from November 2006
guessed from 100,000 - 150,000 dead.
This sharply contrasts with a study of Iraqi households in the Lancet, jointly produced by Johns Hopkins
Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, MD, and the School of Medicine at Al Mustansiriya
University in Baghdad, Iraq. The Lancet study found that as of July 2006, approximately 655,000 Iraqi deaths
were "a consequence of the war".
We quote from the Lancet study below:
"There has been widespread concern over the scale of Iraqi deaths after the invasion by the US-led coalition in
March, 2003. Various methods have been used to count violent deaths, including hospital death data from the
Ministry of Health, mortuary tallies, and media reports.
"The best known is the Iraq Body Count, which estimated that, up to September 26, 2006, between 43,491
and 48,283 Iraqis have been killed since the invasion. [But] estimates from the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior were
75% higher than those based on the Iraq Body Count from the same period.
"An Iraqi non-governmental organization, Iraqiyun, estimated 128,000 deaths from the time of the invasion
until July, 2005, by use of various sources, including household interviews.
"The US Department of Defense keeps some records of Iraqi deaths, despite initially denying that they did.
Recently, Iraqi casualty data from the Multi-National Corps-Iraq (MNC-I) Significant Activities database were
released. These data estimated the civilian casualty rate at 117 deaths per day between May, 2005, and June,
2006, on the basis of deaths that occurred in events to which the coalition responded.
"There also have been several surveys that assessed the burden of conflict on the population. These surveys
have predictably produced substantially higher estimates than the passive surveillance reports...
"This discrepancy is not unexpected. Data from passive surveillance are rarely complete, even in stable
circumstances, and are even less complete during conflict, when access is restricted and fatal events could be
intentionally hidden.
"Aside from violence, insufficient water supplies, non-functional sewerage, and restricted electricity supply also
create health hazards. A deteriorating health service with insecure access, and the flight of health
professionals adds further risks. People displaced by the on-going sectarian violence add to the number of
vulnerable individuals. In many conflicts, these indirect causes have accounted for most civilian deaths.
"[A Lancet 2004 study]...estimated excess mortality of at least 98 000 after excluding, as an outlier, the high
mortality reported in the Falluja cluster. Over half of excess deaths recorded in the 2004 study were from
violent causes, and about half of the violent deaths occurred in Falluja.
"We estimate that, as a consequence of the coalition invasion of March 18, 2003, about 655 000 Iraqis have
died above the number that would be expected in a non-conflict situation, which is equivalent to about 2·5% of
the population in the study area. About 601,000 of these excess deaths were due to violent causes...
"Our estimate of the pre-invasion crude or all-cause mortality rate is in close agreement with other sources.
"The post-invasion crude mortality rate increased significantly from pre-invasion figures, and showed a rising
trend. The increasing number of violent deaths follows trends of bodies counted by mortuaries, as well as
those reported in the media and by the Iraq Body Count...
"Our estimate of the post-invasion crude mortality rate represents a doubling of the baseline mortality rate,
which...constitutes a humanitarian emergency.
"Application of the mortality rates reported here to the period of the 2004 survey gives an estimate of 112,000
(69,000–155,000) excess deaths in Iraq in that period. Thus, the data presented here validates our 2004 study,
which conservatively estimated an excess mortality of nearly 100,000 as of September, 2004.
"Our estimate of excess deaths is far higher than those reported in Iraq through passive surveillance measures.
"Mortality rates from violent causes have increased every year post-invasion. By mid-year 2006, 91 violent
deaths had occurred in 6 months, compared with 27 post-invasion in 2003 and 77 in 2004, and 105 for 2005,
suggesting that violence has escalated substantially.
"The attributed cause of these deaths has also changed with time. Our data show that gunfire is the major
cause of death in Iraq, accounting for about half of all violent deaths. Deaths from air strikes were less
commonly reported in 2006 than in 2003–04, but deaths from car explosions have increased since late 2005.
"The proportion of violent deaths attributed to coalition forces might have peaked in 2004; however, the actual
number of Iraqi deaths attributed to coalition forces increased steadily through 2005.
"Deaths were not classified as being due to coalition forces if households had any uncertainty about the
responsible party; consequently, the number of deaths and the proportion of violent deaths attributable to
coalition forces could be conservative estimates."
Like what you're reading so far? Then why not order a full year (52 issues) of the The American Spark e-
newsletter for only $15? A major article covering an story not being told in the Corporate Press will be
delivered to your email every Monday morning for a full year, at a price you can easily afford. Order Now!
By Cliff Montgomery - June 4th, 2007
Tens of thousands of Iraqis have died since the Bush Administration invasion of their country in March 2003.
But just how many have lost their lives is a controversial issue, with wildly varying estimates.
Iraq's U.S.-backed government doesn't have a precise figure. Health ministry estimates from November 2006
guessed from 100,000 - 150,000 dead.
This sharply contrasts with a study of Iraqi households in the Lancet, jointly produced by Johns Hopkins
Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, MD, and the School of Medicine at Al Mustansiriya
University in Baghdad, Iraq. The Lancet study found that as of July 2006, approximately 655,000 Iraqi deaths
were "a consequence of the war".
We quote from the Lancet study below:
"There has been widespread concern over the scale of Iraqi deaths after the invasion by the US-led coalition in
March, 2003. Various methods have been used to count violent deaths, including hospital death data from the
Ministry of Health, mortuary tallies, and media reports.
"The best known is the Iraq Body Count, which estimated that, up to September 26, 2006, between 43,491
and 48,283 Iraqis have been killed since the invasion. [But] estimates from the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior were
75% higher than those based on the Iraq Body Count from the same period.
"An Iraqi non-governmental organization, Iraqiyun, estimated 128,000 deaths from the time of the invasion
until July, 2005, by use of various sources, including household interviews.
"The US Department of Defense keeps some records of Iraqi deaths, despite initially denying that they did.
Recently, Iraqi casualty data from the Multi-National Corps-Iraq (MNC-I) Significant Activities database were
released. These data estimated the civilian casualty rate at 117 deaths per day between May, 2005, and June,
2006, on the basis of deaths that occurred in events to which the coalition responded.
"There also have been several surveys that assessed the burden of conflict on the population. These surveys
have predictably produced substantially higher estimates than the passive surveillance reports...
"This discrepancy is not unexpected. Data from passive surveillance are rarely complete, even in stable
circumstances, and are even less complete during conflict, when access is restricted and fatal events could be
intentionally hidden.
"Aside from violence, insufficient water supplies, non-functional sewerage, and restricted electricity supply also
create health hazards. A deteriorating health service with insecure access, and the flight of health
professionals adds further risks. People displaced by the on-going sectarian violence add to the number of
vulnerable individuals. In many conflicts, these indirect causes have accounted for most civilian deaths.
"[A Lancet 2004 study]...estimated excess mortality of at least 98 000 after excluding, as an outlier, the high
mortality reported in the Falluja cluster. Over half of excess deaths recorded in the 2004 study were from
violent causes, and about half of the violent deaths occurred in Falluja.
"We estimate that, as a consequence of the coalition invasion of March 18, 2003, about 655 000 Iraqis have
died above the number that would be expected in a non-conflict situation, which is equivalent to about 2·5% of
the population in the study area. About 601,000 of these excess deaths were due to violent causes...
"Our estimate of the pre-invasion crude or all-cause mortality rate is in close agreement with other sources.
"The post-invasion crude mortality rate increased significantly from pre-invasion figures, and showed a rising
trend. The increasing number of violent deaths follows trends of bodies counted by mortuaries, as well as
those reported in the media and by the Iraq Body Count...
"Our estimate of the post-invasion crude mortality rate represents a doubling of the baseline mortality rate,
which...constitutes a humanitarian emergency.
"Application of the mortality rates reported here to the period of the 2004 survey gives an estimate of 112,000
(69,000–155,000) excess deaths in Iraq in that period. Thus, the data presented here validates our 2004 study,
which conservatively estimated an excess mortality of nearly 100,000 as of September, 2004.
"Our estimate of excess deaths is far higher than those reported in Iraq through passive surveillance measures.
"Mortality rates from violent causes have increased every year post-invasion. By mid-year 2006, 91 violent
deaths had occurred in 6 months, compared with 27 post-invasion in 2003 and 77 in 2004, and 105 for 2005,
suggesting that violence has escalated substantially.
"The attributed cause of these deaths has also changed with time. Our data show that gunfire is the major
cause of death in Iraq, accounting for about half of all violent deaths. Deaths from air strikes were less
commonly reported in 2006 than in 2003–04, but deaths from car explosions have increased since late 2005.
"The proportion of violent deaths attributed to coalition forces might have peaked in 2004; however, the actual
number of Iraqi deaths attributed to coalition forces increased steadily through 2005.
"Deaths were not classified as being due to coalition forces if households had any uncertainty about the
responsible party; consequently, the number of deaths and the proportion of violent deaths attributable to
coalition forces could be conservative estimates."
Like what you're reading so far? Then why not order a full year (52 issues) of the The American Spark e-
newsletter for only $15? A major article covering an story not being told in the Corporate Press will be
delivered to your email every Monday morning for a full year, at a price you can easily afford. Order Now!