Today's Article
'The core of the
Taliban ... will not flip
against its al-Qaeda
allies,' states a
leading expert in
Central Asian affairs.
The American Spark
The Taliban Cannot Be 'Flipped', Warns Afghanistan Expert

By Cliff Montgomery - Nov. 29th, 2009

A number of Taliban members should be recruited for U.S. ends, say some within the Obama Administration.
Their central idea is that such deals with less ideological members may eventually splinter the group's support
for al-Qaeda.

It's frankly a decent idea: Find any possible way to turn the enemy against itself. But
a recent article published
on the website of Foreign Affairs Magazine calls this theory into question.

The matter is immensely important, as President Obama reportedly plans to unveil his policy for Afghanistan
this week.

Drawing on the lessons of recent Afghan history as well as a mountain of declassified documents, a top expert
on Central Asia declared that former "Secretary of Defense [Robert] McNamara warned us of the central
importance of knowing the enemy."

McNamara was one of the principal architects of the Vietnam War. He later came to deeply regret his Vietnam-
related decisions as Pentagon chief.  

"We must not ascribe our own logic, mindsets or worldview to the Taliban," wrote Barbara Elias, Director of the
Afghanistan, Pakistan and Taliban project for the
National Security Archive, a privately run government
watchdog group.

The central problem for the Obama Administration, continues Elias, is that "the Taliban and al-Qaeda are
neither inextricably linked by ideology nor held together merely by fleeting correspondence of interests.

"Their relationship is rooted in more complex issues of legitimacy and identity.

"The Taliban cannot surrender Bin Laden without also surrendering their existing identity as a vessel for an
obdurate and uncompromising version of political Islam.

"Their legitimacy rests not on their governing skills," or their popular support, "but on their claim to represent
what they perceive as Shari'a rule."

"This means upholding the image that they are guided entirely by Islamic principles," added Elias.

"As such, they cannot make concessions to, or negotiate with, secular states.

"The core of the Taliban, in short, will not flip against its al-Qaeda allies.

"Moreover, even if some elements gave indications of being willing to do so, they would probably not follow
through," continued Elias.

"The Taliban’s history is littered with promises to adversaries that remain unfulfilled.

"And there is little reason not to expect flipped Taliban to flip back when it suits their purposes," added Elias.



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