Today's Article
'The current situation
is almost full civil
war...I am not sure
how this conflict will
end,' says one
protest leader.
is almost full civil
war...I am not sure
how this conflict will
end,' says one
protest leader.
The American Spark
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Is Thailand Close To 'Civil War'?
By Cliff Montgomery - May 16th, 2010
Thai protesters are continuing their fervent protests in Bangkok, as troops loyal to Prime Minister Abhisit
Vejjajiva move in to quash the center of a growing rebellion.
Analysts and diplomats believe the military has grossly underestimated the tenacity of "red shirt" protesters, so
called because many have taken to wearing a red shirt as a symbol of solidarity.
For six weeks, thousands of protesters have barricaded themselves in a 1.2 square-mile district of Bangkok,
filled with shopping malls and luxury hotels.
And the rebellion is spreading.
A state of emergency now exists for over a quarter of Thailand; on Sunday emergency decrees were issued in
five additional provinces. Violence has broken out in the north, a red shirt stronghold which over half of the
country's 67 million people call home.
"The potential for a broader civil conflict is high," National University of Singapore's Federico Ferrara told
Reuters today. Ferrara is a political science professor at the school.
"It is conceivable they might have an even worse problem on their hands after they have 'cleansed' Bangkok of
the red shirts--especially if they have to massacre hundreds of people in the process," Ferrara added.
At least 60 individuals have lost their lives and over 1,600 others have been wounded as a result of the
protests and government crackdowns which began in March, states official figures.
One Thai protest leader has said his country may be sliding to "civil war."
The red shirts, who primarily are made up of Thailand's poorer citizens, say that Prime Minister Abhisit came to
power through undemocratic means. They accuse the Abhisit government of illegally tampering with the
judiciary and joining with the country's royalist elite to bring down two elected governments, which were allied to
ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
They are demanding that Abhisit step down, and are calling for new elections.
In a televised statement on Saturday, Abhisit declared the army would continue its operation to stop the
protests.
"We cannot leave the country in a situation where people who don't obey the law are holding hostage the
people of Bangkok, as well as the center of the country," said Abhisit.
"We can't allow a situation where people set up armed groups and overthrow the government because they
don't agree with it," he added.
The army hopes to cut off the entrenched rebel camp in Bangkok from receiving additional reinforcements and
supplies. It has even declared a number of 'live fire' zones in areas.
But these actions may not work. A BBC News reporter in Bangkok said the moves simply are pushing
protesters into different parts of the city.
"Despite claims by the Thai government that the situation was under control and its soldiers had only fired in
self-defense," states BBC News, "army snipers have been accused of targeting protesters.
"Footage from Bangkok on Saturday showed red-shirts dragging gunshot victims to safety," adds BBC News.
The violence became even more manic on Thursday after a defecting general who champions the protesters'
cause--Khattiya Sawasdipol, also known as Seh Daeng (Commander Red)--was shot by an unknown gunman
in an apparent assassination attempt. The general is alive, but in critical condition.
The growing rebellion drives many observers to question the current stability of Thailand, which holds the
second-largest economy in South-East Asia.
"The current situation is almost full civil war," said a red shirt leader, Jatuporn Prompan. "I am not sure how this
conflict will end."
The protests initially convinced Abhisit to hold elections this November. But that possible deal fell through, as
neither the prime minister nor the red shirts would acknowledge accountability for an April crackdown on
protests which turned deadly.
Dr. Thitinan Pongsudihrak, from Chulalongkorn University, believes that Prime Minister Abhisit's days in office
are numbered.
"Abhisit's departure is imminent," Dr. Thitinan, who currently teaches at America's Stanford University, told
BBC News.
"If he and his backers decide to go in for more crackdown, it could boomerang beyond imagination by
galvanizing the reds' upheaval into an inchoate people's revolution," he added.
"Their resolve and rage, mobilization and organization, over the past year have been under-estimated by the
Bangkok-based establishment fronted by Mr. Abhisit," said Thitinan.
"Their newfound traction has staying power. When reds' numbers dwindle, reinforcements of both the rural
disenchanted and the urban underclass show up. Time was on Abhisit's side before the deadly clash, but now
time is on the reds' side."
The red shirt movement is not a mere outburst of discontent, but rather the outcome of a political
consciousness which has been rising among Thailand's poor for a generation, declared Thitinan.
Like what you're reading so far? Then why not order a full year (52 issues) of The American Spark
e-newsletter for only $15? A major article covering an story not being told in the Corporate Press will be
delivered to your email every Monday morning for a full year, for less than 30 cents an issue. Order Now!
By Cliff Montgomery - May 16th, 2010
Thai protesters are continuing their fervent protests in Bangkok, as troops loyal to Prime Minister Abhisit
Vejjajiva move in to quash the center of a growing rebellion.
Analysts and diplomats believe the military has grossly underestimated the tenacity of "red shirt" protesters, so
called because many have taken to wearing a red shirt as a symbol of solidarity.
For six weeks, thousands of protesters have barricaded themselves in a 1.2 square-mile district of Bangkok,
filled with shopping malls and luxury hotels.
And the rebellion is spreading.
A state of emergency now exists for over a quarter of Thailand; on Sunday emergency decrees were issued in
five additional provinces. Violence has broken out in the north, a red shirt stronghold which over half of the
country's 67 million people call home.
"The potential for a broader civil conflict is high," National University of Singapore's Federico Ferrara told
Reuters today. Ferrara is a political science professor at the school.
"It is conceivable they might have an even worse problem on their hands after they have 'cleansed' Bangkok of
the red shirts--especially if they have to massacre hundreds of people in the process," Ferrara added.
At least 60 individuals have lost their lives and over 1,600 others have been wounded as a result of the
protests and government crackdowns which began in March, states official figures.
One Thai protest leader has said his country may be sliding to "civil war."
The red shirts, who primarily are made up of Thailand's poorer citizens, say that Prime Minister Abhisit came to
power through undemocratic means. They accuse the Abhisit government of illegally tampering with the
judiciary and joining with the country's royalist elite to bring down two elected governments, which were allied to
ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
They are demanding that Abhisit step down, and are calling for new elections.
In a televised statement on Saturday, Abhisit declared the army would continue its operation to stop the
protests.
"We cannot leave the country in a situation where people who don't obey the law are holding hostage the
people of Bangkok, as well as the center of the country," said Abhisit.
"We can't allow a situation where people set up armed groups and overthrow the government because they
don't agree with it," he added.
The army hopes to cut off the entrenched rebel camp in Bangkok from receiving additional reinforcements and
supplies. It has even declared a number of 'live fire' zones in areas.
But these actions may not work. A BBC News reporter in Bangkok said the moves simply are pushing
protesters into different parts of the city.
"Despite claims by the Thai government that the situation was under control and its soldiers had only fired in
self-defense," states BBC News, "army snipers have been accused of targeting protesters.
"Footage from Bangkok on Saturday showed red-shirts dragging gunshot victims to safety," adds BBC News.
The violence became even more manic on Thursday after a defecting general who champions the protesters'
cause--Khattiya Sawasdipol, also known as Seh Daeng (Commander Red)--was shot by an unknown gunman
in an apparent assassination attempt. The general is alive, but in critical condition.
The growing rebellion drives many observers to question the current stability of Thailand, which holds the
second-largest economy in South-East Asia.
"The current situation is almost full civil war," said a red shirt leader, Jatuporn Prompan. "I am not sure how this
conflict will end."
The protests initially convinced Abhisit to hold elections this November. But that possible deal fell through, as
neither the prime minister nor the red shirts would acknowledge accountability for an April crackdown on
protests which turned deadly.
Dr. Thitinan Pongsudihrak, from Chulalongkorn University, believes that Prime Minister Abhisit's days in office
are numbered.
"Abhisit's departure is imminent," Dr. Thitinan, who currently teaches at America's Stanford University, told
BBC News.
"If he and his backers decide to go in for more crackdown, it could boomerang beyond imagination by
galvanizing the reds' upheaval into an inchoate people's revolution," he added.
"Their resolve and rage, mobilization and organization, over the past year have been under-estimated by the
Bangkok-based establishment fronted by Mr. Abhisit," said Thitinan.
"Their newfound traction has staying power. When reds' numbers dwindle, reinforcements of both the rural
disenchanted and the urban underclass show up. Time was on Abhisit's side before the deadly clash, but now
time is on the reds' side."
The red shirt movement is not a mere outburst of discontent, but rather the outcome of a political
consciousness which has been rising among Thailand's poor for a generation, declared Thitinan.
Like what you're reading so far? Then why not order a full year (52 issues) of The American Spark
e-newsletter for only $15? A major article covering an story not being told in the Corporate Press will be
delivered to your email every Monday morning for a full year, for less than 30 cents an issue. Order Now!
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